Karnataka 2018: Advantage JDS

Every Election is closely followed in India – it’s usually the best “Reality Show” in town. Coming ever so often, sometimes many times a year like in 2018, the average Indian loves to “play politics”. The TV (media) has a field day for months on end. Free TRPs.

The Karnataka Elections in 2018 holds special significance since it is the only (major) state under ConGress rule after Punjab. Many discount Punjab as an Amrinder Singh victory and not that of the ConGress! 

A straw poll reaching mostly urban (Bangalore) audience shows the following “facts”:

Screenshot 2018-03-01 16.04.17

Based on the 1st Choice, the BJP with 46% should be marginally ahead of the ConGress with 38%. But the “surprising” thing is that on 2nd Choice, the Congress gets a clear majority with a vote share of 50%. The BJP falls to a 23% low! See the chart below:

Screenshot 2018-03-01 16.06.56

This has many interpretations:

  1. It is the BJP’s to screw up 😉
  2. The ConGress strategy is best to let BJP make all the “mistakes” in the campaign.
  3. The “swing” of the fence-sitting voter will be decided in the last days of campaigning.

It is obvious that neither the BJP nor the ConGress as on date can be “confident” of victory. More than likely, the Gowdas of JDS will be kingmakers, by sheer accident!

Kumaraswamy HD

This scenario resembles the one that saw Deve Gowda become PM as a “compromise” candidate! Deve Gowda was  11th Prime Minister of India from 1 June 1996 to 21 April 1997 and he was the 14th Chief Minister of Karnataka from 1994 to 1996. He may well see his son Haradanahalli Devegowda Kumaraswamy may see a similar “accident” and assume the CM’s chair in 2018.

The elections are expected to be held in April 2018 and much can change by that time. Electioneering is yet to start. Modi has yet to storm the state.

@jsvasan

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